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"*** The Housing Bubble
"*** We can conquer nations but can we defeat their people?
**** PLACE THE BLAME FOR THE MORTGAGE MESS ON THE RIGHT PEOPLE
****ANOTHER
CHAPTER IN THE GATHERING STORM
I don’t usually write about current events. They are read today and birdcage liners tomorrow. I write material that I hope will stand the sands of time, but this time I couldn’t resist because it concerns an industry that I spent the major part of my life in, and I have deep respect for it, but not necessarily for some of the people in it.
The crap has hit the fan and is filling the financial world with a
disagreeable odor. Those of us in
the legitimate mortgage business knew as long ago as the middle nineties that
it was going to happen if they kept creating junk mortgages.
I wrote several articles about it and many other conservatives did the
same. We also knew that it would
do no good to shout wolf because nobody was paying any attention. They were
too busy making money. It was a
bonanza for the companies. So,
all we could do was sit back and wait for the first shoe to fall as we all
predicted. We
could only watch as it got worse daily. The scam artists were on the
radio and television preaching their sordid message as the answer to the
second coming for the beleaguered buyer. The money was flowing
like wine and nothing short of a complete collapse would stop it.
So, --- welcome to the world of mortgage banking.
Initially the taxpayer is going to be stuck with all of those
junk loans made by greedy and opportunistic mortgage peddlers.
Don’t blame the unsophisticated buyer for this problem.
He was told over and over, “Buy real estate now.
Don’t worry about financing. We
will take care of that for you. Buy
today for tomorrow it is going up and you will be rich.”
Buyers couldn’t resist. The
desire for money does that to people. The
brokers conned the public big time and they are going to get away with it.
The greed mongers have their money in the bank.
Now it is your turn to kick in, so get ready.
The worst is yet to come. The
terrible consequences of this collapse could be more damaging than you can
imagine. Short and long-term
credit tightens up and in many cases simply disappears.
When any company falls, the domino effect kicks in and the damage is
wide spread. All of the suppliers suffer.
The dealers suffer. The
public suffers and it goes on and on as it spreads like a wave on a pond.
This time it is even worse. It
has caused a near collapse of the commercial credit market, and that alone
could be devastating to the economy.
The few dominoes that have fallen are just the beginning.
If a homeowner loses his largest asset, the odds are very good that he
will also not be able to pay the credit card debt that he has accumulated.
Is that the next shoe to fall? On
average, it amounts to several thousand dollars per family. Then, will he be able to make his car payments?
Is that another shoe?
It goes on and on for the poor maligned consumer.
Once the problems start rolling, they multiply and create new problems
along the way. If a family living from paycheck to paycheck misses a single
house payment, the odds of them making up that payment, and continuing to make
his regular payment, is very slim. Usually,
about the only way he can do it is to create other debt to pay the missed
payment. That only compounds the
problem. The guy is headed for
bankruptcy. For all practical
purposes, his life is dead in the water and there is nothing he can do about
it. It could start by missing
only one payment. Nobody should
have to live with that hammer hanging over his head.
Ninety-nine percent of Americans have never seen a real
depression. Most have weathered
short recessions with no major problems.
That is not a depression. A
few people may have read about it, but folks don’t read much anymore.
They watch television and it bends the truth to fit its program
philosophy. I know what a
depression is like and what it will do to a family.
I was there in 1929 and all of the thirties.
I know what it was like to see formally affluent people broke and
devastated. To quote an old
friend, “It wasn’t a pretty sight.”
It was so incredible that to write about it gives me chill bumps today.
The unspeakable conduct forced on men and women who would do anything
to feed their families, and the fear that twenty-five men were standing in
line for your job was pressure beyond belief.
Somebody needs to tell people the truth.
We are approaching the gates of such a Hell-on-earth right now.
You better pray that somebody does something to stop it.
With one of the
largest single sectors in our economy dead in the water and the rest wading in
the dangerous shallows, we could very well be in deep trouble already.
The waders could follow quicker than you think and the whole complex
could sink out of sight. Does it scare you? It
does me.
Now --- The big red media (The networks) are making a big deal out of
the forced buy-out of the junk mortgages.
They didn’t mention that the liability is less than 10 percent of the
total amount committed. It is much more of a specially constructed loan than it is a
bailout. THE HOUSES UNDER THOSE
MORTGAGES ARE STILL THERE< AND WILL PROBABLY BE SOLD FOR A PROFIT IN THE
END. I think that we will find that most of these first mortgages will be less
than the appraised price of the properties today, even in a declining market.
True, some of the mortgages were 100 percent loans or better.
Many of them had second and third mortgages attached to make the deal
initially. All of those
subordinate loans and liens went up in smoke with the foreclosure.
The holders of that secondary paper lost it all.
Their only alternative was to buy the property himself, and banks
normally don’t do that. They
are not equipped to handle real estate in that mode.
What’s left is a clean first mortgage.
Even the unemployed who lost their houses probably had some equity, but
because of market conditions at the time, couldn’t get it out in time to
save it.
We should have started screaming when the bureaucrats,
including the Clintons, decided to socially engineer the nation and put every
family in a home of their own. They
never gave any consideration to who would have to pay the bill when these
people fell by the wayside. The
mistake was allowing easy credit to place people in houses they couldn’t
afford. It got votes at the
expense of the rest of us. These
poor souls should never have passed the application stage.
I heard of a few cases that were absolutely ridiculous. Example: One
single woman bought a condominium because she was tired of paying rent (she
said). She got a 90 percent first
mortgage, a 20 percent second (is anybody counting here?) and between signing
the real estate contract and closing on the deal, she leased a five hundred
dollars a month luxury car. She
worked for a bank as a teller. Any
guesses where that condo will land eventually?
I think that is the exception rather than the rule.
When the agent was asked why he didn’t drop that prospect, he cited
the hate laws and the threats he had received in the past for refusing to
process certain applications. (Tongue-in-cheek) I am sure the money didn’t
enter into it. What do you think?
Many of the loans in the inner cities will probably be a
total loss. Within days after
becoming vacant the foreclosed houses will be stripped of any material that
can be sold, leaving an empty hulk. Look
at public housing in those areas as an example.
Maybe the suburban foreclosures will help offset the inner city losses.
Without doing a detailed analysis of the overall problems that will
occur if we do not rescue these junk mortgage loans, I will ask you to
remember the last great depression. I
was there. I know what it was like with 25 percent unemployment.
I know what it was like to see grown people cry because they couldn't
feed their children. I know what it was like to see the few people with a little
savings go into seclusion to avoid relatives and friends begging for help.
Our government, then headed by Herbert Hoover as president, did
nothing. Their attitude, like
some Republicans today, was to let the free and uninhabited market work itself
out of the jam. It didn’t
happen then and it won’t happen this time. The ditch is too deep. Government
must come to the rescue or face the consequences and that ain’t pretty,
folks. The market will right
itself from recession size glitches, but nothing like this.
It has gone too far.
We had better be happy that the government is doing SOMETHING to help
stabilize the market and help you keep your job or business from going under.
It was a bad slip-up to let those unqualified people get a loan in the first
place, but the damage is done, so let’s make the best of it and go forward.
Think about this for a moment. What if we create a consolidated fund through a non-profit
government agency where a distressed buyer can come to an honest central point
and consolidate all of his debt into a single payment that he can
afford, and not be able to add to the debt until increments of the original
debt have been paid down. Such a
plan, even in this rough stage, would have saved most of the foreclosures and
not put the taxpayer at risk for anything.
The paper from such a transaction would have commercial value, just
like a home mortgage. The estate
would be a part of the security, and commercial insurance would play a part in
the ultimate payout. Details
could be easily worked out to keep the consumer productive and industry
satisfied. Consumers are in
trouble because they don’t know how to control their spending.
Such an oversight fund would eliminate that problem.
It is not the global or domestic economy our hapless consumer
has to worry about. It is his personal
economy. Will he be able to meet
his committed obligations when the world around him is devoid of opportunities
and he is living in fear that he might not have a job tomorrow?
He can’t take job security seriously anymore.
Loyalty between worker and employer disappeared when the worker became
a number instead of a name.
Look at the future. I
see bright spots on the horizon if we recognize that there is a problem, and
get to work fixing it before it is too late.
Come look with me.
By
Jack W. Boone
Nov. 2006
The oracles of the financial world, speaking in hushed tones, are forecasting that the housing bubble is about to burst. Some think the collapse could be as much as fifty percent off of current market prices. I think a more realistic figure would be ten to fifteen percent maybe, but not fifty. I think it would take a severe depression to do that much damage. If, by some chance a depression of that magnitude hits, and it could if this one industry is allowed to implode, here are some of the ramifications that you can look for:
It will probably happen fast, nearly overnight. Rumors will fan the flames. People will panic because their lives are tightly intertwined with their largest asset. As prices fall, nearly every home owner in the nation with a mortgage would owe twice as much as the property is worth. How many would be willing to stay with such a deal and continue to make payments on phantom value? Very few I would think. Most would try to sell, or let it go into foreclosure. A deficiency judgement is worthless against a bankrupt family. People will not pay for houses with twice the loan to value ratio. The confusion in the market will be rampant. Unemployment will escalate and the foreclosure situation will follow, confusing the situation even more. Appraisers will be stumped on how to appraise property with no comparable values to use as a standard.
Most mortgage companies will be broke and running for cover with their bloated portfolios. That voice on the radio urging you to refinance and he will pay all costs (to put you in debt up to your eyeballs) will be gone. (Good riddance) The days of the easy Real Estate loan will be over.
Huge numbers of properties will be dumped on the market out of fear and frustration as the unemployment figures trigger more panic. Some owners will take any offer to get rid of their property. Now,--- that could present a big problem. With huge numbers of houses on the market, demand for new houses will dry up. Buyers will be able to get a house for the asking, no equity capital required. Lenders will be hit particularly hard. They will have to join the rush to unload that dead inventory of foreclosed properties at any price. Mortgage lenders and banks are not equipped to keep property in inventory, so they will be in trouble with their Real Estate portfolios. Only the strong will survive.
When the home and apartment building industry comes to a screeching halt, huge numbers of people will be out of work. The residual affect of that will also be devastating to thousands of small and mid-size businesses who support the industry. That will throw even more people out of work — and the problem will begin to compound.
The immigrants who presently keep the building industry afloat will be unemployed. With none of the benefits of citizenship, and no unemployment insurance to tide them over, they will be searching for any work to feed their families. The minimum wage law will be ignored (it doesn’t apply to illegal immigrants anyway) and the competition will become fierce for entry level of jobs. People working second jobs to pay huge house payments will be back to a single source of income. The competition will reflect on all jobs up the scale and salaries will dive as businesses search for ways to cut overhead to offset the lost revenue. With no jobs for the immigrants, crime may be the only solution for the desperate.
All of the service industries will take a tremendous hit, emergency rooms, unpaid utilities, relief agencies, skips and others. That will only compound the problem as unemployment soars. Statistics will not reflect these changes. No statistics are kept on illegal immigrants.
The last time we had a serious economic downturn, the government extended the unemployment insurance to ease the problem. That will not help the illegal immigrant situation.
After a while land prices will also fall. Owners will hold on for a while, then capitulate to the times, trying to bale out of debt. Many corporations holding land in inventory for future development will dump it on the market and take what the market offers to try to ease their financial loses. Huge write-offs will became the norm, and that will cut into tax revenue. That will also affect a segment of the stock market as the builders and suppliers take a financial bath, but well heeled investors will prosper like never before by picking up distress properties.
Interest rates will go into a tailspin, creating havoc in the financial world. Banks will tighten the screws on all types of loans and start calling marginal accounts. Likewise, banks will shut off all but highly secured loans to try to stop the Real Estate portfolio bleeding.
Loan and deposit insurers, like the government programs set up years ago to prop up the housing market and guarantee deposits, will capsize.
Builders will not be able to sell new houses under construction because the construction loan balances will exceed the sales price. Builders and developers will abandon subdivisions leaving them to the banks. There will be very little chance for the bankers to recover the expended construction loans.
Many suppliers carrying builder’s accounts will tumble into the abyss of bankruptcy. Manufacturers of building materials will go out of business in droves, with the larger ones scaling back to compensate for the business that is left. That will add significantly to the unemployment situation.
Municipalities will be forced to adjust property tax portfolios, but they will be very slow to react to the conditions. That will put tax liens on most properties, forcing another level of negotiations for a potential buyer. That will damage the market and cause the loss of millions of dollars in tax revenue. That will also create more unemployment problems as well as affect their bond ratings. Questions will arise about their ability to redeem existing bonds pledged against a failing tax base. Particularly tax-free housing authority bonds that were a plumb for the middle range investor. That is a scary thought to investment houses.
It has been said that the Real Estate market generates more revenue daily than all of the stock and bond markets combined. As you can see, the failure of this segment of our economy has real potential to throw the entire nation into a devastating depression, probably worse than the great depression of the thirties because of the huge numbers of people dependent on it. Most of them do not have a backup plan or place to go. The recent hurricane victims are proof that our economy is shallow.
With our leader’s heads in the sand by their own design, we have allowed mortgage lenders to create a false Real Estate market by over-lending and encouraging marginal applicants.
The first "domino" to fall will be caused by the continued rise in foreclosures. At some point during that period, foreclosed houses will outnumber the existing houses on the resale market. When that happens, the collapse will follow quickly and there will be no stopping it. Some call it the "ripple" affect and others call it the "trickle-down" affect, I prefer "domino affect" because, to me, each domino that falls represents a part of the industry that is crippled or destroyed, and probably not salvageable in the near future.
I am not sure that it hasn’t already started in some sections of the country. It can spread like a wildfire. Don’t expect the national news to warn you.
Young people today buy with little regard for the future. All of their lives, real estate has gone up in value. They have seen example after example where friends or relatives have bought houses only to sell it in a few years at an inflated price. They can’t imagine that those inflated values can also go down. It is what they can afford right now that is important. Municipal politicians love it. They get good numbers to sell bonds and to raise taxes (and salaries, including their own). Statisticians love it. The indices all point upward. Nobody gives any thought to the fact that this might be a phenomenon that can implode and bring the whole establishment down with it. Many simply don’t care.
For many years I owned a Real Estate company with several subsidiaries. In addition to sales, we were mortgage lenders, home builders, developers, suppliers, manufacturers and we had other related operations. I have seen the industry bounce up and down like a rubber ball over those forty years. I remember when, at its low points, it was necessary to develop creative financing that would allow people who could not otherwise buy homes, buy them. FHA and VA loans were designed to get a home for those who could not come up with the usual twenty percent required by banks.
I get news letters advising me "confidentially" to get out of Real Estate immediately because the end is in sight. One even forecasts that it would happen in six to eighteen months, and cited several well known financiers as his authority. The citizen’s tendency, of course, is to sit back and do nothing. The "Don’t rock the boat" attitude is alive and well. People tend to make moves when they are forced. Like, --- I waited until 75 Percent of my airline bond portfolio went up in smoke before I sold them for what I could get. I was sure that it would bottom-out and pick back up soon. --- It hasn’t. That same formula will apply itself to the housing industry. Unfortunately, because the housing market is not quoted daily on television, little attention is paid to it as a market-maker. Some statistics are around if you look real hard, like the number of units that are expected to be built this year, or the average interest rate for a home loan. There is very little factual information available to warn you that a brush fire may be quietly burning over the hill, and it is headed your way.
My advise would be not to panic, but if the market does implode, go back to your lender and cut a deal. For the first time in decades he will be on the defensive and forced to negotiate. Hold on if you can. Soon we will have three-hundred million people to shelter and that can only be done in houses.
The government tries to keep bad news a secret out of fear that people will panic. I think the Federal Reserve knows where we are headed and could inform us. The depth of their warning usually is something like, "It is possible that there will be an "adjustment" down the road a ways." That is pure bunk. The leader of the Federal reserve might be an excellent economists, but he is also a politician once removed. He is appointed by politicians rather than elected. His job is to manipulate interest rates to keep the economy afloat. He has done a good job, but this situation can get away from him. His control is mostly limited to an "up" market. He has little effect on a "down" or dying market. Unemployed people cannot borrow money. I wish he would bite the bullet and tell it like it is. The housing market is GROSSLY overheated at the moment and an implosion is very likely to happen unless the Fed puts the brakes on it. It is not IF anymore, but WHEN. The Feds must have a policy to keep this massive part of our economy alive and well or the implosion will shake this nation to its foundation. Congress should quit playing political games and get to work on a viable plan of survival if the chain of events kicks in. They should do it now because once the dominos start to fall it is too late. This is serious business and affects millions of people.
One badly needed change is to establish a standard building code. The present national code is largely ignored by local governments. A universal code can only be done by Congress, but they must outlaw all of the little imperious codes of municipalities made to appease small groups of dissidents. As it stands now, every little hamlet and local government has their own set of codes, and to conform to them is a nightmare. Many of the inspectors are inept. Some or relatives of office-holders with little technical knowledge. Most of the local codes were created by inept, ignorant so-called engineers, ( The title came with the office.) with no engineering credentials and even less basic knowledge of the business.
Believe it or not, I am not shouting fire in a crowded theater. I truly believe the fire has already started, and nobody in the fire department (government) is watching or really cares. Somebody had better do something to stabilize the foreclosure situation when it starts or the next domino that falls could usher in a full-blown depression.
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by
Jack W. Boone
I
want to justify what I say here by giving you part of my qualifications to say
it. I have been an oil
wholesaler, retailer, producer and still have producing wells.
So, I am qualified to talk about this.
Americans are stupid because the oil industry said so.
They pull the most amateurish stunt in history to rig the price and
laugh all the way to the bank. Here
is the trick, and how you eat it up.
I can hear it now being discussed in the board room--- “We run the
retail price up to three bucks a gallon and let the pigs squeal for a while,
then we drop it back to what we really want and the pig thinks he has a hell
of a deal. That way, we keep the
government out of our act and we make more profit.”
Get it? There is
nothing honorable about these guys. War
or no war, these predators are digging money out of the middle-class
American’s pocket to add to their bottom line.
The top one percent doesn’t care, because a few dollars more or less
is insignificant to them, but to the poor sap who has to get to his job and
earn just enough money to take care of his family, it means a lot.
It should be a shame for any
company to earn a billion dollars a month, some of it with little or no
royalties to the owner of the oil, the government, and force a large segment
of the population to suffer financially.
You can’t depend on what we euphemistically call a congress to do
anything about it, especially with thirty-thousand lobbyist hanging around
their door with briefcases full of cash.
Brother, you don’t stand a prayer.
Your part of the equation is to furnish your money and keep your mouth
shut. The oil companies know what
is best for you.
They were clever. They
bought up most of the competition (they left a few non-enmities out there so
they can claim competition) but the decisions made in the big oil board rooms
are the only ones that count. Have
you ever wondered why you didn’t have a fuel efficient vehicle on the
American market before now? The
oil companies didn’t want one, and their influence with the car
manufacturers counted a lot more than yours.
If it was not for the foreign manufacturers you wouldn’t have one
now. Your salvation lies with the
foreign manufacturers, not the American manufacturers.
When there was
competition in the market place, before the big boys bought them out, we
occasionally had price wars. That
helped to keep the prices down and competitive.
We
were told repeatedly that the environmentalist were going to halt drilling on
American land and waters by regulating it to death. They did that, to some extent, but the big companies were not
anxious to drill anyway, and the wild-catters were put out of business by
those regulations and other problems. It
was easier and cheaper to buy crude from abroad.
They already owned the tankers. The
environmentalists successfully stopped refinery building also, so artificial
shortages were generated. The
“tree huggers” had won again. Now
we are faced with an uncertain Middle East that will, in all probability,
eventually go into a Civil War that will spread to other countries as they
take sides. The prize is the
Middle Eastern oil fields. We,
the American consumers, will suffer the consequences.
We have already passed the three hundred million mark in people, and we are putting more than a million automobiles per year on our already over-crowded roads. That is the problem. More cars, less gasoline and less capacity to make it. To top it off, the big oil companies, after wiping out the competition, have cleared the field to do as they please with the market. Who do you think is going to be the big loser in all of this? Take a long look in the mirror.
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THE GASOLINE QUESTION
by
Jack W. Boone
May 23, 2007
Why are gasoline prices going
through the roof? The answer is
greed, pure and simple. We
allowed it to happen when our government abandoned the anti-trust laws and
allowed mergers that killed off competition.
A government is supposed to protect its citizens, not exploit them, or
allow them to be exploited for the benefit of a few greedy financiers. Our government allowed the large oil companies to become huge
by gobbling up the little competitors. Remember
the gasoline price wars? No more.
They would have to compete against themselves, and ‘that ain’t
gonna happen, folks.’
When greed is pervasive in the market place action must be taken by the
government to stop it before it spreads like a deadly mold.
It is even worse when the greedy purveyors conspire with dishonest
government officials to clean your plow, then we, as a nation, are in deep
trouble. The mergers and
acquisitions have happened and the only entity out there large enough to fight
the oil conglomerates is the government.
Now, isn’t that convenient? You
know --- the rabbit in the briar patch thing.
Now is the time for action.
Congress can do it, but they won’t because to challenge the titans
could cost them big. For
example, with good conduct and obedience to the party line his special
earmarks will be attached to a bill that is sure to pass. On the other hand,
a lot of static from a lowly Congressman could jeopardize those
earmarks and that could cost him the election neat time around.
That reason alone will encourage a Congressman to keep his mouth shut.
Only the power of the people can
make it happen by sending loads of mail to Congress. Once a Congressman realizes that a riled up constituency can
cancel the effect of pork he will panic.
The hold on the office could be in jeopardy. The name of the game in politics is self-preservation, and
they will react to that threat. The
real need to lower the prices has nothing to do with you or your situation.
It is purely profit and loss to the oil companies.
Some of the jelly-heads on talk
radio claim that, factoring in inflation, gasoline prices are lower than they
have been in the past. What they
don’t know it that your wages are not tied to that same inflation
scale. They are tied to your
pocketbook.
That aside, it will take a mountain
of mail or some other momentous happening from you demanding action to get
anything done.
This is a government problem that
can be rectified by the power of the people forcing Congress to act.
It will take forceful action by individuals and groups.
This is approaching one of those times when government is required to
act. Others are revolution ---pestilence---theft in office---or
anything else of a massive nature that drastically affects all people, then
big brother must come to the rescue. If
you are wondering where big oil fits in here, look under theft.
It is no sin to make an honest profit for honest labor or investment,
but exploitation created by designed opportunity is sinful.
That is exactly what is in play here.
The conglomerates are applying pressure to get relaxed drilling
regulations on the continent, and this will work if allowed to continue.
I suspect it has been planned for years.
The first clue was not building new refineries in over 25 years.
There was no excuse to do that, except to create shortage, thus raising
the price.
I hate to call on the government
for anything, but after all --- they are there
for that purpose. Isn’t
it the government for the people --- of the people ----by the people?
Or --- is that like so many other clichés , a myth?
Gasoline
prices are not going to come down until the oil roundtable wants them to, or
they are forced
to do it.
Here is how do it.
File an action to force a breakup of these huge oil conglomerates,
similar to the one that broke up the telephone dynasties a few years back, and
watch them react.
You will have decent pump prices before you know it.
The politicians will take heed and tell the tree huggers where to go,
then allow the oil companies to drill for oil that we already own.
With that threat, the far east will get in line.
They won’t have a choice.
You, my friend, are not a part of
the price equation. So, pay at
the pump and don’t complain, or --- write a letter to the guy representing
you in Congress and tell him like it is, that you might have to send a part of
your gasoline bill to him by way of the written ballot in the next election
unless something happens soon. If
enough of you write, you’ll get their attention.
Note: The author has been affiliated with the oil industry in several capacities for forty years. His only interest today are his families producing wells in Mississippi.
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WE
CAN CONQUER NATIONS, BUT CAN WE DEFEAT THEIR PEOPLE?
by
Jack W. Boone
Notice: The
material in this article is my opinion and is not affiliated with any other
individual or organization.
With the
military machine we have, it is relatively easy
to conquer a smaller nation, but it is very difficult to defeat it’s
people. That is what we have done
in Iraq. We swept through the
country with our huge machine in high gear and arrested those who we perceived
to be bad people and hung them. For
some unknown reason, we thought that was what the people of Iraq wanted.
Apparently it was not. It
was later that we discovered that
the majority of the people of Iraq seemed to be satisfied with Hussein’s
government That is evidenced by
the lack of cooperation between our military and the civilian population of
Iraq. These people know who and
where the roadside bombs ( IEDs --- Improvised explosive devices) are being
placed and they keep the information to themselves.
They must enjoy seeing our soldiers getting killed.
It is a measure of pay-back, I suppose.
The
dissidents did get their chance
to tear down statues and loot the museums and art galleries in front of
international cameras as our troops came in.
I would think they are now in hiding.
Maybe
the Iraqi people understood their country after all. It was at peace with the world under Hussein’s
rule. It is very apparent
that the Hussein Government understood the problems of the country and kept
the internal revolutionaries in check.
One
of our war mantras prior to the invasion was that Hussein was killing his own
people. He was a dictator.
Dictators do that sort of thing, usually those who disagree with him or
who have offended him in some way. As
far mass killings, not a word was said about the Kurds being in full revolt
against his nation at the time and seriously threatening his oil fields in
Northern Iraq. He wasn’t
about to let them get away with that. Turkey
was well aware of the Kurd ambitions and sealed their border against them.
By
way of a parallel, what do you think would happen if California or Texas were
to announce tomorrow that they were pulling out of the United States and
taking their oil with them? Do
you think the Washington crowd would just wave and say, “ Good bye, y’all.
You have fun now, you heah.” I doubt it.
Federal troops would be sent in droves to stop the revolt, and the
leaders would be arrested and probably sentenced to long prison terms, or
death. That’s the way it works
in revolutions. It’s a sloppy
business and the winner is usually ruthless with the losers.
Remember Castro’s firing squads?
Several
million American people and I had no personal feelings about Saddam Hussein
one way or the other. He did us no harm and we were not afraid of him.
I never believed that he had a major weapons system of any kind except
those that he needed to protect his borders.
Didn’t he spend seven years at war with Iran? He would have been
stupid to convert his swords to plowshares after that.
The
UN inspectors were all over Iraq and dictated where they wanted to
look. We had our own intelligence
assets on the ground who didn’t know of any weapons.
We had intelligence drones and observation aircraft watching his every
move. We had machinery in space
photographing Iraq day and night. If
we can read a license plate from space, we would know if they dug a latrine.
It was not their fault that our intelligence system didn’t point that
out. The rest of the world knew
it. That was why they wanted no
part of our unique war.
After
all, --- Iraq supposedly has 65 percent of the Middle Eastern oil under its
home territory. Hussein was
feeding his people and taking care of them the best he could in spite of the
embargo imposed by us, using the UN as a front to make it appear to the world
that it was a universal decision. It
was stupid of Hussein not to try to pacify the UN resolutions and get the
embargo lifted, but I guess dictators also have their pride and egos.
So,
we learn that a majority of the Iraqi people
apparently were satisfied to live there because they didn’t have
quasi-governments-in-exiles all over the world spouting the horrors of living
under Hussein’s government. Sure
there were hardships living in Iraq, as there are in any country that is
embargoed from trading their primary export, oil.
We contributed to the downfall of his nation with pressure tactics
through the UN. When that
wouldn’t work fast enough to satisfy some people in the US, we turned to war
to expedite the downfall.
Let’s face
the fact that we allowed a hard-headed President and Vice President to use our
military for their personal gratification, and in one instance, possible
personal profit. The President
was warned repeatedly by most intelligent people at home and abroad not to
invade Iraq, but he ignored the warnings and pushed ahead.
After he couldn’t justify not finding weapons of mass destruction, he
switched to protecting us from terrorists who didn’t exist in Iraq.
If that fails, where does he go from there?
Maybe he thinks all of the Insurgents now fighting us in Iraq will come
to the US. Our track record for
keeping people out of our country is not too good.
The Insurgent
situation in Iraq is totally different from the terrorists war.
The rhetoric out of Washington would lead you to believe that is not
true. Their un-provable theory
that the Insurgents would be in our cities if they were not tied up in Iraq is
pure folly. Two different wars,
and they know it,
All
of the wasted tax money going to support this war could have been used to
modernize and update this nation’s decaying infrastructure and obsolete
transportation system. We could
also have balanced the budget, lowered taxes, fixed Social Security, had an
acceptable national healthcare program, corrected a welfare system that is now
a direct drain on the treasury with no hope of return on the money spent or
redemption of the participants. We
could develop financial programs to help our own citizens, many now living one
payday away from financial disaster. We
could have completely rebuilt our national economic structure to bring our
technology to full bloom.
We
could correct an ever growing immigration problem that is a colossal joke, a
dangerous joke, but still a joke. With
5.5 percent unemployment, we need the immigrants here to fill the jobs that
other cultures now feel is beneath them.
I have outlined a thirty-day registration system in this page that is
feasible to do and will work. At
least we would know where they are and which ones were fugitives.
We
still must build a transportation system to relieve our commuters from the
hours wasted sitting on clogged highways.
We could have developed a highly efficient human transport system that
people will actually use. A
commuter will not abandon the convenience of his automobile to ride a slow,
inexact train that does not run on time and costs as much to ride as the
operation of his own vehicle. What
does a commuter have to gain by using such a conveyance?
Nothing but additional confusion and inconvenience.
There must be a major incentive to get him out of his vehicle.
Things like high speed delivery to a point close to his destination, a
reasonable price, safe parking at origination stations, comfort, and security
of his person.
Now
we seem to think that high energy prices will eventually drive the commuter to
our existing antiquated delivery systems.
Forget it. That
will not happen. We could have
major studies underway in that area now if the funds for it were not being
funneled to our war.
The
war money is gone, folks,--- apparently much of it to a company that was
formally headed by our Vice President. It
is true that a massive contract was awarded to that company at the outset of
the war without competitive bids. (Time constraints are always a good excuse to bypass the
system and the law.) I think a
logical question would be, when did an energy company develop the expertise to
run military mess halls, hospitals, military logistical systems
and civilian governments? What
happened to our army people who did that as occupiers in past wars with a
great deal of efficiency.
Those
billions of tax dollars are supposedly being spent on “projects” in Iraq
to establish a democratic form of government.
That may not look suspicious to you, but to me it doesn’t pass the
smell test and has an odor that won’t go away.
A democratic form of government will last until the next prayer time in
an Islamic state, then it will be gone.
As for our
President, a man who did so much good for our country after 9/11, and then
bungled so badly, maybe the
rumors had some validity . Maybe
he wanted to vindicate his father from something.
I don’t know what. George Senior didn’t go into the cities of Iraq for a
reason. Why didn’t he tell
Junior that reason and why didn’t Junior heed his father’s advice, that
is, if he did tell him? Senior
apparently had smarter advisors than his son.
Senior was probably advised that the average field-trained American
soldier is not suited for house to house close combat.
That is very specialized field. I
doubt that the Army and Marines have more than a few thousand specialists
trained in that type warfare to this day.
Of course, the real number is classified, as it should be. I know it is specialized because I designed and taught
a training course on the subject in WW II.
Basic urban defense methods, including the use of doors, windows, walls
and basements as targets and shelter haven’t changed since WW II.
To send untrained soldiers into that atmosphere is little more than
murder.
I
would suspect there are many thousands of terrorists inside our country today,
biding their time and waiting for the command to strike.
I outlined how it can be done in my novel A Plan To Kill and a
“little book” titled ‘What a terrorists can do to you.’
I usually hate
to agree with most politicians, but it is time for the loyal opposition to
bite the bullet and get our troops out of Dodge.
There is no credible threat from the Middle East against us that
couldn’t be neutralized in one day. Israel
is capable of defending itself with us in a logistics position.
Then why are we so gung-ho to establish a democratic government in a
centuries-old theocratic territory where all thinking men know it won’t
work?
The
Middle East is at least 200 years away from a representative form of
government. The concept is
totally foreign to their thinking process and religion. To prove that to your self, go to any Middle Eastern country
and talk to the people about current events.
The last time I was there was before the Bush wars, and even then their
interest in a democratic republic was non-existent. Then the question always arises, “Okay then, why do they
all want to come to our country?” For
the money, you dullard. They
don’t give a damn about the government.
They know that w e have the greatest country in the world, with more
amenities to make people comfortable than any other country in existence and
the money flows like wine. Who
wouldn’t want to come here?
Middle
Easterners are capable of creating little terrorists raids around the
country, using a few fanatics, but that is about all. Their problem is to keep their fanatics in house once they
get a taste of American life. It
will not be unusual to see them defecting to our wonderful life-style and
deserting their fanatical cause.
Afghanistan’s
history should have told us something. I
don’t believe the toy government we put in power there would last a week
without our soldiers to protect it. Afghanistan
claims that it has never been defeated in a war and has not been defeated by
us, yet our man sits in the Presidential chair.
Russia tried to defeat them without success, so we, being the arrogant
smart-asses that we are, had to try. It
was sort of comical. We went in
with guns blazing and chased an ancient rag-tag army into the hills.
They are still there, pecking away at our troops who are powerless to
do anything but defend their positions. We
couldn’t even capture the damn Talaban leaders.
The
Afghan war-lords are still in charge of their domains and of the countries
economy. The narcotics business
is thriving bigger and apparently better than ever. They ignore us. Our
goody-two-shoes people are in there making noises that they are reforming the
country by destroying traditions that are centuries old, by teaching a few
women how to read and write. Our
people will be the first to be booted out of the country when we leave and the
Islamic government returns.
Isn’t
it time for somebody with the rank above PFC in this country to realize that
we have no business in the Middle East? Is
it Iran we are worried about? So
what if they develop a nuclear weapon. Every
country in the world will have at least one in a few years.
The Russian Mafia will see to that.
It is like trying to stop the tide from coming in.
It won’t happen. If
they do develop a small device, how will they use it?
Just like North Korea today, they are smart enough to know that the
first nuclear missile they launch at another country will result in their own
country being reduced to one large radio-active piece of charcoal.
They may be stupid, but I don’t think they are crazy.
Is
that our fear? Europe is not
afraid of them. Why are we?
By
continuing our position as the salesman of Democracy to the rest of the world,
we are going to bury and maim a lot of our young American soldiers in the
process. Is it worth that?
This
whole mess in the Middle East has been a colossal failure because the
main-stream media refused to cover it factually to let the American people
know the truth. Their sole aim is
to sell their product, and to do that they use tools that will attracts the
prurient public interests, doom and gloom, sex and titillating gossip.
There was much more interest in some soldier mistreating a prisoner
than the deaths of our own people. Wars
are not necessarily good copy unless there is total involvement by nearly
every family in the nation.
The
television people are playing it cute. They
try to irritate the Islamic community by sending sharp looking female
reporters in tight skirts to interview Islamic leaders.
They know that the female is not held in the highest esteem in Muslim
countries. That is a supreme
insult to the Arabs. The
producers do it for spite. Then
again, maybe the networks don’t have competent male reporters to interview
foreign heads of state. I
wouldn’t bet a nickel on that. The
American media is largely Jewish owned and they can’t resist an opportunity
or temptation to shove the needle a little deeper in the rump of the Arabs.
Fairness
in the media is a thing of the past. That’s
okay. People give them less and
less credence anyway. It would be
nice, though, if they told us the truth.
The mainstream print press is sucking wind financially at the moment
and bleeding money as people turn away from their biased rhetoric in droves.
They are forced to bow to the deity of commercialism to survive and
that means compromise or lose the ad revenue.
They have no choice. When
the rout started the print media moguls sold to conglomerates, leaving a few
extroverts with directed agendas in charge of the editorial boards.
These people parrot the conglomerate line, or lose their jobs.
They have also destroyed what little credibility that was left. No more free press, folks.
What
is truly amazing is the explosion of super-conservative ‘talking heads’
on radio and television. Especially
one who thinks he has a gift from God, and another who follows the same line
of rhetoric --- apparently
thinking he is God. They
have a clear field of fire against any critic of this war and they use it.
There was some talk recently that those shows might become subject to
the media fairness doctrine, but the broadcasters reportedly spent millions to
squelch the enforcement of that law. Now
the talking heads can attack with impunity without having to worry that anyone
will demand equal time. They
appear to be safe unless they attack the black minority, then the going gets
dicey. As it is, they have the
best of all worlds. Just don’t
say that a black person is black.
To sum up,
let’s suck it up America, and do something drastic.
Let’s ask the new President of Iraq to call a special session of his
Parliament, (or whatever its equivalent is,) in thirty days.
Let’s send Vice President Cheney
with the following message:
“Ladies
and Gentlemen of Iraq, I am here with a message from the people of the United
States. We will be officially
leaving Iraq in the next 120 days. We
will leave a team of advisors with you if you wish us to, but that
decision is up to you. We will
furnish your Army, Navy and Air Force with the necessary material and
ammunition for you to defend your country.
If it looks like you will be overrun by a foreign power within the next
three years, we will come to your aid to prevent that from happening. We will leave your internal problems for you to settle and
pay for with your oil revenues.
“We
are not retreating. We came here
with a stated mission and that mission has been accomplished.
Victory was ours. It is now time to go home.
We know you understand and we also know that you will be glad to get us
out of your country so you can settle your domestic affairs in your own
manner. We wish you luck. This is a final, irrevocable decision. This war is over for the United States. You must rally your own troops to handle your problems.
As
of the first of the next month, we will move into our enclaves and start the
process of withdrawal from your country.
Thank you very much for your attention.
I will leave you now because I know that you have work to do.
Good luck and goodbye.”
A
note to the US Congress:
Let’s
get real and make it the first order of business to create legislation to stop
future presidents from making the same foolish mistakes that have been made in
the past. We must not have future
wars like the last few. We
can’t allow Presidents to declare wars on their own initiative without
following the strict letter of the law. No
Congressional approval ---no war, period.
Get the country back to normal and concentrate on doing what is best for us, for a change. Thank you.
BLOG 8/1/08
PLACE THE BLAME ON THE RIGHT PEOPLE
by
Jack W. Boone
While the politicians are looking for a scapegoat for the mortgage crisis, they may be looking in all of the wrong places. The mortgage companies are profit-making entities, and as such have every right to exploit the market if it can make an honest profit. The market was not created by the mortgage industry. The market goes back much further than that. I built many houses that I sold as "tract houses", you know the kind, where we bull dozed all of the trees where the houses were to sit, and built cookie-cutter houses for a needy public, basically the same floor plan with different exteriors. The prices were designed to fit the market place of the time and place. The average wage then topped out at about four hundred dollars a month, so the house payment and utilities had to fit a formula of no more than twenty-five percent of that figure. That meant that a house and utility payment could be no more than a hundred dollars per month. That limited the size and price of houses we could profitably build, so we built to fit that market. FHA and VA did a lot of the mortgage insurance guarantees at the time, leaving the mortgagor with little or no risk. Most of those houses are still occupied. Giant housing projects, like those that sprang up in the Northeast and West after WW II, are still around and serving their original purpose.
But, not being able to stand prosperity, we had to abandon the precept of how to safely own a home and move to a new era of larger houses and higher prices. Unfortunately, wages, bank balances, net worth’s and other requirements for buyers to qualify for the higher prices did not keep up, so the industry had to "mold" new loans to fit old buyer. The bet was on inflation. Get in the house any way you could and next year you would have a nice, fat equity to sell. Unfortunately, in a down market, that theory goes bust in a hurry. Much of the so-called loss that is out there now are paper losses. I would bet that not a single home being foreclosed on had a qualified occupant in it.
It all leads back to the municipal governments. They didn’t like the tract house concept because it didn’t generate the tax revenue needed to build r monuments to themselves. Politicians love to have streets and bridges named after them when they leave office. To be sure that it would happen, they started creating tighter and tighter zoning laws that forced the developer and builder to jack-up the size and price. The builders liked it because it meant more profits and eliminated the lower priced competitors. The developers liked it because it multiplied the dirt price several times creating enormous profit for them. The suppliers liked it because they could creep the price up on materials and services while the temporarily dollar-blinded builder was counting his money. It became sheik to not shop for prices because it took too much of his valuable time. Not one thought was given to the novice home buyer who was told that nothing smaller or lesser priced could be built in this county, so his choice was limited to what the builders offered. Do you get the picture now? It was a combination of things that could have been avoided if everybody had not let greed blind him or her. I know that hundreds of thousands of people in our state are stretching themselves every month to make ridiculous payments on ridiculous homes, forced on them by municipal laws. Go after that crowd of nitwits who, under the guise of "protecting your investment", are killing you financially. Send them packing at the next election. They took advantage of unsophisticated buyers for personal gain. There ought to be a law. For all of the participants except the hapless buyer, it was another of those win-win situations. Everybody profits in the game --- except the poor sap that has to pay for that inflated house every month.
So --- the process begins. The buyer goes to his mortgage lender and says, "I have just so much money and I need to borrow the difference because that is the only house available. My prospects for promotion are fairly good. I have searched the area and that is the lowest price available. That will help my promotion chances and make my family happy at the same time. How about you coming up with a way for me to get it?"
The creative minds of the mortgage lender began to work their magic, and by using their knowledge of the trade, like multiple mortgages, deferred payments, tricky interest deferments, waived closing costs and fees, side loans that will not show up on the record, cosigners and slick adversing tricks, they found a way to make it work. In the end, everybody was happy. The builder paid off the banker for the construction loan. The developer paid off the development loan. The suppliers bought new trucks and a condo in the islands and the laborers sent money home to Mexico. In the end, the buyer had a brand new house that he probably couldn’t afford, and he was happy. The buyer didn’t worry. He had been told by everybody in the chain that a year from today, his house would be worth at least ten grand more, and he was a lucky man. Unfortunately, the house of cards collapsed and the last group to buy fell off of the chart. It was just a matter of time anyway.
It was the morning after when all hell broke loose. Now everybody is crying the blues. The builder may lose his multiple toys and his mansion. The suppliers have to discharge people to keep the doors open and everybody in between is affected in various ways, all bad, and the industry gets the blame. Suddenly that guy who had such a bright future is looking a little sheepish and the brightness has dulled a bit.
Don’t you see? We all contributed to this predicament. We took advantage of the situation and wrung every single dollar out of it we could get.
So, let’s quit complaining and get to work Force the politicians to reform of the zoning laws to lower structure size so builders can build houses that people can afford to buy and pay for. Planning commission and their fancy land plans are good, but they are done by amatuers with little knowledge of economics or business. They would like to have everyone living in a Beverly Hills. That is not practical thinking. Let’s stop this ridiculous "not in my back yard" syndrome that is pervasive with zoning boards and planning boards and replace the members with knowledgable people for a change. Rework the rules of buying so that properties are sold to the worthy and not to the unqualified "investor" type.
The Real Estate customer base is growing every day with each marriage, newborn and graduating senior. They will keep coming. They must have a place to live. You are in the business of providing it, so get on with your job.
In short, the municipal governments are responsible for this mess. They forced the building of these castles by restricting the construction to outrageously priced houses. The industry went along for the ride.
Let’s stop the foolishness and build houses that people can afford to buy without going bankrupt.
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